S&P Equity Research Sees Box-Office Momentum for Movie Industry Fueled by Spring/Summer Sequels

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Industry's Hot Start to 2007 Summer Season Likely to Continue with More

     Blockbusters Expected

    NEW YORK, May 18 // -- The bright lights of Hollywood may be shining the way to promising returns for the movie industry, according to Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services. The industry might be just warming up, with the release of more potential blockbuster films scheduled over the coming weeks and this year's $3.1 billion gross receipts through mid-May 2007 at the U.S. box office likely on a pace to eclipse last year's total domestic gross receipts of $9.2 billion. In the view of Standard & Poor's Equity Research, several of the industry's biggest names could have banner years.

    Among those companies on which Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services has a "Strong Buy" (5-STARS out of 5) recommendation, and that we believe could benefit from strong performance at the box office are General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE, $37) and The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS, $36). Also, Standard & Poor's Equity Research believes that DreamWorks Animation (DWA: 3-STARS "Hold", $28), News Corp. (NWS: Hold; $23; NWS.A: Hold, $22), Sony Corporation (SNE: Hold, $55), Time Warner (TWX: Hold, $22) and Viacom (VIA.B: Hold, $43) could also see positive impacts from success at movie turnstiles.

    "The record-breaking debut of Spider-Man 3 has set the stage for what we believe could be an unprecedented spring movie season that may carry straight into summer," says Tuna N. Amobi, Senior Media and Entertainment Analyst with Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services. "This is great news for the movie industry, which has been trying to control production costs while balancing the challenge of direct-to-consumer online distribution with DVD sales in the face of the continued evolution of consumer behavior. While we believe there is reason to be optimistic in the short term, it becomes a question of whether this momentum can be sustained throughout the holiday season. In our view, there is still the inherent risk associated with the fickle nature of consumers that tempers our positive outlook with a hint of caution for the long-term."

    According to Standard & Poor's Equity Research, a multitude of offerings should be able to continue the pace set by the release of Sony's Spider-Man 3. These include several three-quels, such as DreamWorks' Shrek the Third, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Time Warner's Ocean's 13 and Rush Hour 3, and News Corp.'s Live Free or Die Hard. Those releases may find stiff competition for ticket sales from GE's NBC Universal unit's sequels The Bourne Ultimatum and Evan Almighty, News Corp.'s Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, as well as Time Warner's fifth Harry Potter installment, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Disney's newest animated feature, Ratatouille and Viacom's Transformers.

    "We believe there's a lot to like about the list of upcoming releases," Amobi continues. "You have some films that offer what we see as proven 'brand-name franchises' and a successful box-office track record, as well as appeal across multiple audience segments. When you factor in the 'star power' of the films' casts, live or voiceover, we believe there is a strong case to be made for the industry building on its early box-office success, which could lead to nice returns and ultimately stock performance."

    The analyst quoted above is a Standard & Poor's equity analyst. He has no affiliation with any companies he covers, nor any ownership interest in any.

    About Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services

    As the world's largest producer of independent equity research, Standard & Poor's licenses its research to over 1,000 institutions for their investors and advisors, including 19 of the top 20 securities firms, 13 of the top 20 banks, and 11 of the top 20 life insurance companies. Standard & Poor's team of 120 experienced U.S., European and Asian equity analysts use a fundamental, bottom-up approach to assess a global universe of approximately 2,000 equities across more than 120 industries worldwide. Follow Standard & Poor's equity analysts' U.S. market commentary each day at http://www.equityresearch.standardandpoors.com/.

    The equity research reports and recommendations provided by Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services are performed separately from any other analytic activity of Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services has no access to non-public information received by other units of Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's does not trade for its own account. The analytical and ethical conduct of Standard & Poor's equity analysts is governed by the firm's Research Objectivity Policy, a copy of which may also be found at http://www.standardandpoors.com.

    About Standard & Poor's

    Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is the world's foremost provider of financial market intelligence, including independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research and data. With approximately 8,500 employees, including wholly owned affiliates, located in 21 countries, Standard & Poor's is an essential part of the world's financial infrastructure and has played a leading role for more than 140 years in providing investors with the independent benchmarks they need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions. For more information, visit http://www.standardandpoors.com.
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